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Iker Pajares v Greg Lobban (Wed 04 Sep 2019)

Match won by Iker Pajares. Result: 11-9,11-6,1-11,11-6.

Starting level for Iker Pajares: 40,991, level confidence: 39%.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 39,361, level confidence: 60%.
Iker Pajares to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Greg Lobban.

Iker Pajares won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Iker Pajares played 19% better than Greg Lobban in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Iker Pajares actually played at a level of 43,783 and Greg Lobban at a level of 36,851. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Iker Pajares changes to +6.7% and Greg Lobban changes to -4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Iker Pajares becomes +1.8% and for Greg Lobban becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Iker Pajares: 62%, Greg Lobban: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Iker Pajares: 58%, Greg Lobban: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Iker Pajares: 41,629, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 38,852, level confidence: 72%.