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Mohamed Nasser v Yahya Elnawasany (Tue 03 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Nasser. Result: 11-8,3-11,5-11,11-6,14-12.

Starting level for Mohamed Nasser: 9,604, level confidence: 30%.
Starting level for Yahya Elnawasany: 15,483, level confidence: 55%.
Yahya Elnawasany to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Mohamed Nasser.

Mohamed Nasser won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Nasser played 5% better than Yahya Elnawasany in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Nasser actually played at a level of 12,520 and Yahya Elnawasany at a level of 11,877. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Nasser changes to +23% and Yahya Elnawasany changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Nasser becomes +6.2% and for Yahya Elnawasany becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Nasser: 55%, Yahya Elnawasany: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Nasser: 42%, Yahya Elnawasany: 57%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Nasser: 10,199, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Yahya Elnawasany: 15,173, level confidence: 57%.