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Piedro Schweertman v Kostiantyn Rybalchenko (Thu 22 Aug 2019)

Match won by Piedro Schweertman. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-2.

Starting level for Piedro Schweertman: 25,737, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Kostiantyn Rybalchenko: 10,668, level confidence: 65%.
Piedro Schweertman to win as he is currently playing 141% better than Kostiantyn Rybalchenko.

Piedro Schweertman won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Piedro Schweertman played 267% better than Kostiantyn Rybalchenko in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Piedro Schweertman actually played at a level of 31,729 and Kostiantyn Rybalchenko at a level of 8,653. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Piedro Schweertman changes to +14% and Kostiantyn Rybalchenko changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Piedro Schweertman becomes +3.5% and for Kostiantyn Rybalchenko becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'European Individual Masters Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Piedro Schweertman: 75%, Kostiantyn Rybalchenko: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Piedro Schweertman: 61%, Kostiantyn Rybalchenko: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Piedro Schweertman: 26,590, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Kostiantyn Rybalchenko: 10,272, level confidence: 65%.