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Rex Hedrick v Zac Millar (Fri 30 Aug 2019)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-4.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 33,169, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Zac Millar: 10,540, level confidence: 47%.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 215% better than Zac Millar.

Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 175% better than Zac Millar in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rex Hedrick was taking it easy by anything up to 26%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,160 and 33,169 without affecting his level.

In this case, Rex Hedrick played at level 28,985 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Zac Millar is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 72%, Zac Millar: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 68%, Zac Millar: 64%.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 33,169, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Zac Millar: 10,540, level confidence: 64%.