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Miguel Rodriguez v James Willstrop (Wed 28 Aug 2019)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 12-10,11-8,11-13,11-2.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 45,636, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Willstrop: 45,280, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 1% better than James Willstrop.

Miguel Rodriguez won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 29% better than James Willstrop in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miguel Rodriguez actually played at a level of 51,580 and James Willstrop at a level of 40,062. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to +12% and James Willstrop changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes +2.7% and for James Willstrop becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Bellevue International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 90%, James Willstrop: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 80%, James Willstrop: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 46,738, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for James Willstrop: 44,137, level confidence: 77%.