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Paul Coll v Karim Abdel Gawad (Mon 26 Aug 2019)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 11-3,6-11,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 63,936, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 64,656, level confidence: 65%.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Paul Coll.

Paul Coll won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 35% better than Karim Abdel Gawad in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Coll actually played at a level of 74,768 and Karim Abdel Gawad at a level of 55,289. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to +17% and Karim Abdel Gawad changes to -10.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes +3.4% and for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Bellevue International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 65%, Karim Abdel Gawad: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 56%, Karim Abdel Gawad: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 65,852, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 63,318, level confidence: 69%.