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Diego Elias v Tarek Momen (Sat 24 Aug 2019)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 6-11,11-8,11-4,17-15.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 56,403, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tarek Momen: 63,084, level confidence: 61%.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Diego Elias.

Diego Elias won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 23% better than Tarek Momen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Elias actually played at a level of 66,109 and Tarek Momen at a level of 53,822. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to +14% and Tarek Momen changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes +2.9% and for Tarek Momen becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Bellevue International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 85%, Tarek Momen: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 73%, Tarek Momen: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 57,973, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Tarek Momen: 61,277, level confidence: 66%.