Vikram Malhotra v Velavan Senthilkumar (Mon 26 Aug 2019)
Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-9,10-12,11-9,11-3.
Starting level for
Vikram Malhotra:
27,935, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Velavan Senthilkumar:
19,031, level confidence: 61%.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing
47% better than Velavan Senthilkumar.
Vikram Malhotra won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played
27% better than Velavan Senthilkumar in this match.
As Vikram Malhotra has played below his allowed range at 24,818, his level reduction is 2.9% before damping. On the assumption that Vikram Malhotra would normally have been playing at level 26,708 (based on typical behaviour), Velavan Senthilkumar played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.2%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 4.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to -2.2% and Velavan Senthilkumar changes to +4.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes -0.9% and for Velavan Senthilkumar becomes +1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Srfi Indian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 81%, Velavan Senthilkumar: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 75%, Velavan Senthilkumar: 72%.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra:
27,688, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Velavan Senthilkumar:
19,332, level confidence: 72%.