Vikram Malhotra v Robert Andrew Garcia (Sun 25 Aug 2019)
Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-7.
Starting level for
Vikram Malhotra:
27,223, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for
Robert Andrew Garcia:
15,611, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing
74% better than Robert Andrew Garcia.
Vikram Malhotra won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played
136% better than Robert Andrew Garcia in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Vikram Malhotra actually played at a level of
31,650 and Robert Andrew Garcia at a level of
13,427. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to +12% and Robert Andrew Garcia changes to -9.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes +3% and for Robert Andrew Garcia becomes -2.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Srfi Indian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 77%, Robert Andrew Garcia: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 66%, Robert Andrew Garcia: 74%.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra:
28,038, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Robert Andrew Garcia:
15,186, level confidence: 74%.