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Cesar Salazar v Robertino Pezzota (Wed 24 Jul 2019)

Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 41,415, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Robertino Pezzota: 27,973, level confidence: 68%.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Robertino Pezzota.

Cesar Salazar won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played 94% better than Robertino Pezzota in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cesar Salazar actually played at a level of 47,422 and Robertino Pezzota at a level of 24,430. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to +12% and Robertino Pezzota changes to -8.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes +2.7% and for Robertino Pezzota becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 72%, Robertino Pezzota: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 62%, Robertino Pezzota: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cesar Salazar: 42,250, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Robertino Pezzota: 27,475, level confidence: 72%.