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Miles Jenkins v Adrian Waller (Sat 10 Aug 2019)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 9-11,9-11,6-11.

Starting level for Miles Jenkins: 22,204, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Adrian Waller: 44,086, level confidence: 60%.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 99% better than Miles Jenkins.

Adrian Waller won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 43% better than Miles Jenkins in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Adrian Waller was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 34,064 and 44,086 without affecting his level.

As Adrian Waller has played below his allowed range at 32,919, his level reduction is 3.5% before damping. On the assumption that Adrian Waller would normally have been playing at level 38,752 (based on typical behaviour), Miles Jenkins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 7.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to -2.5% and Miles Jenkins changes to +6.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes -0.9% and for Miles Jenkins becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 78%, Miles Jenkins: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 66%, Miles Jenkins: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miles Jenkins: 22,714, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Adrian Waller: 43,482, level confidence: 66%.