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Joel Makin v Jack Mitterer (Sat 10 Aug 2019)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-2,11-1,11-4.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 56,552, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Jack Mitterer: 13,355, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 323% better than Jack Mitterer.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 371% better than Jack Mitterer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of 59,670 and Jack Mitterer at a level of 12,657. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 2.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +2.6% and Jack Mitterer changes to -1.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +1% and for Jack Mitterer becomes -0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 77%, Jack Mitterer: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 73%, Jack Mitterer: 90%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 57,005, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Jack Mitterer: 13,229, level confidence: 90%.