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Alan Clyne v Jesus Camacho (Fri 09 Aug 2019)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 11-3,11-2,11-4.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 40,854, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Jesus Camacho: 26,749, level confidence: 64%.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Jesus Camacho.

Alan Clyne won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 267% better than Jesus Camacho in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Clyne actually played at a level of 63,300 and Jesus Camacho at a level of 17,264. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 55% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 43% and 43% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to +43% and Jesus Camacho changes to -31%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes +7.6% and for Jesus Camacho becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Houston Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alan Clyne is limited to +5.2% and Jesus Camacho is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 71%, Jesus Camacho: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 46%, Jesus Camacho: 52%.

A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 43,002, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Jesus Camacho: 26,079, level confidence: 52%.