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Campbell Grayson v Carlos Cornes (Thu 08 Aug 2019)

Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 11-4,11-3,12-10.

Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 36,627, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Carlos Cornes: 26,058, level confidence: 68%.
Campbell Grayson to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Carlos Cornes.

Campbell Grayson won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played 100% better than Carlos Cornes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Campbell Grayson actually played at a level of 43,690 and Carlos Cornes at a level of 21,845. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to +16% and Carlos Cornes changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes +3.5% and for Carlos Cornes becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Houston Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 81%, Carlos Cornes: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 68%, Carlos Cornes: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Campbell Grayson: 37,655, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Carlos Cornes: 25,545, level confidence: 69%.