Ryan Cuskelly v Leonel Cardenas (Thu 08 Aug 2019)
Match won by Ryan Cuskelly. Result: 11-8, 11-6, 11-6.
Starting level for Ryan Cuskelly
, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Leonel Cardenas
, level confidence: 49%.
Expected winner: Ryan Cuskelly as he is 53% better
than Leonel Cardenas.
Ryan Cuskelly won all of the games and 62% of the points.
result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
result would be expected if he was better by around 63% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Cuskelly played 63% better
than Leonel Cardenas in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ryan Cuskelly actually played at a level of 34,685
and Leonel Cardenas at a level of 21,259
. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.
Factoring in the respective confidence levels which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly would be +3% and for Leonel Cardenas would be -3%.
After applying damping, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly becomes +1% and for Leonel Cardenas becomes -1%.
Apply match/event weighting which for 'PSA Houston Open' is 100% leaving the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly as +1% and for Leonel Cardenas as -1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Cuskelly: 62%, Leonel Cardenas: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Cuskelly: 59%, Leonel Cardenas: 62%.
Final level for Ryan Cuskelly: 34,069
, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Leonel Cardenas: 21,654
, level confidence: 62%.