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Mostafa Asal v Lewis Anderson (Sat 03 Aug 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-2.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 44,125, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 15,202, level confidence: 65%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 190% better than Lewis Anderson.

Mostafa Asal won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 175% better than Lewis Anderson in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mostafa Asal was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,941 and 44,125 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mostafa Asal played at level 41,806 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Lewis Anderson is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 81%, Lewis Anderson: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 79%, Lewis Anderson: 79%.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 44,125, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson: 15,202, level confidence: 79%.