Mostafa Asal v Siow Yee Xian (Fri 02 Aug 2019)
Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-1.
Starting level for
Mostafa Asal:
42,438, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Siow Yee Xian:
15,481, level confidence: 68%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing
174% better than Siow Yee Xian.
Mostafa Asal won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played
313% better than Siow Yee Xian in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mostafa Asal actually played at a level of
52,058 and Siow Yee Xian at a level of
12,620. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to +13% and Siow Yee Xian changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes +3% and for Siow Yee Xian becomes -3.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'World Junior Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 80%, Siow Yee Xian: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 65%, Siow Yee Xian: 67%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mostafa Asal:
43,691, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Siow Yee Xian:
14,972, level confidence: 67%.