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Yahya Elnawasany v James Flynn (Thu 01 Aug 2019)

Match won by Yahya Elnawasany. Result: 8-11,11-9,11-7,4-11,11-6.

Starting level for Yahya Elnawasany: 16,446, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for James Flynn: 14,966, level confidence: 68%.
Yahya Elnawasany to win as he is currently playing 10% better than James Flynn.

Yahya Elnawasany won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Yahya Elnawasany played 8% better than James Flynn in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Yahya Elnawasany actually played at a level of 16,309 and James Flynn at a level of 15,092. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany changes to -0.8% and James Flynn changes to +0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany becomes -0.4% and for James Flynn becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'World Junior Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Yahya Elnawasany: 81%, James Flynn: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Yahya Elnawasany: 81%, James Flynn: 82%.

Final level for Yahya Elnawasany: 16,387, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for James Flynn: 15,019, level confidence: 82%.