Yahya Elnawasany v James Flynn (Thu 01 Aug 2019)
Match won by Yahya Elnawasany. Result: 8-11,11-9,11-7,4-11,11-6.
Starting level for
Yahya Elnawasany:
16,446, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
James Flynn:
14,966, level confidence: 68%.
Yahya Elnawasany to win as he is currently playing
10% better than James Flynn.
Yahya Elnawasany won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Yahya Elnawasany played
8% better than James Flynn in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Yahya Elnawasany actually played at a level of
16,309 and James Flynn at a level of
15,092. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany changes to -0.8% and James Flynn changes to +0.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany becomes -0.4% and for James Flynn becomes +0.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'World Junior Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Yahya Elnawasany: 81%, James Flynn: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Yahya Elnawasany: 81%, James Flynn: 82%.
Final level for Yahya Elnawasany:
16,387, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for James Flynn:
15,019, level confidence: 82%.