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Mostafa Asal v Wailok To (Thu 01 Aug 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 42,438, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Wailok To: 11,861, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 258% better than Wailok To.

Mostafa Asal won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 136% better than Wailok To in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mostafa Asal was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 20,542 and 42,438 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mostafa Asal played at level 28,731 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mostafa Asal would normally have been playing at level 29,526 (based on typical behaviour), Wailok To played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to 0% and Wailok To changes to +1.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes 0% and for Wailok To becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'World Junior Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 80%, Wailok To: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 65%, Wailok To: 72%.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 42,438, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Wailok To: 11,928, level confidence: 72%.