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Todd Harrity v Miguel Rodriguez (Wed 31 Jul 2019)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 10-12,12-10,7-11,7-11.

Starting level for Todd Harrity: 35,605, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 44,663, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Todd Harrity.

Miguel Rodriguez won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 24% better than Todd Harrity in this match.

In this case, Miguel Rodriguez played at level 44,180 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Todd Harrity is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 90%, Todd Harrity: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 89%, Todd Harrity: 89%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Todd Harrity: 35,740, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 44,623, level confidence: 89%.