Yahya Elnawasany v Noor Zaman (Wed 31 Jul 2019)
Match won by Yahya Elnawasany. Result: 11-9,11-7,14-12.
Starting level for
Yahya Elnawasany:
15,842, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Noor Zaman:
17,076, level confidence: 41%.
Noor Zaman to win as he is currently playing
8% better than Yahya Elnawasany.
Yahya Elnawasany won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Yahya Elnawasany played
37% better than Noor Zaman in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Yahya Elnawasany actually played at a level of
19,272 and Noor Zaman at a level of
14,037. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany changes to +13% and Noor Zaman changes to -21%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany becomes +3.6% and for Noor Zaman becomes -5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'World Junior Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Yahya Elnawasany: 80%, Noor Zaman: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Yahya Elnawasany: 66%, Noor Zaman: 53%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Yahya Elnawasany:
16,446, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Noor Zaman:
16,304, level confidence: 53%.