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Mostafa Asal v Jared Carter (Wed 31 Jul 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-9,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 42,584, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jared Carter: 12,894, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 230% better than Jared Carter.

Mostafa Asal won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 83% better than Jared Carter in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mostafa Asal was taking it easy by anything up to 28%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 22,292 and 42,584 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mostafa Asal played at level 26,988 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mostafa Asal would normally have been playing at level 30,811 (based on typical behaviour), Jared Carter played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to 0% and Jared Carter changes to +7.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes 0% and for Jared Carter becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'World Junior Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 85%, Jared Carter: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 64%, Jared Carter: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 42,691, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Jared Carter: 13,244, level confidence: 63%.