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Yahya Elnawasany v Adam Agan (Tue 30 Jul 2019)

Match won by Yahya Elnawasany. Result: 6-11,11-3,11-6,11-3.

Starting level for Yahya Elnawasany: 16,040, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Adam Agan: 7,716, level confidence: 59%.
Yahya Elnawasany to win as he is currently playing 108% better than Adam Agan.

Yahya Elnawasany won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Yahya Elnawasany played 40% better than Adam Agan in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Yahya Elnawasany was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,025 and 16,040 without affecting his level.

As Yahya Elnawasany has played below his allowed range at 11,385, his level reduction is 5.6% before damping. On the assumption that Yahya Elnawasany would normally have been playing at level 13,888 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Agan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.9% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany changes to -3.6% and Adam Agan changes to +9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany becomes -1.5% and for Adam Agan becomes +3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'World Junior Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Yahya Elnawasany: 79%, Adam Agan: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Yahya Elnawasany: 65%, Adam Agan: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Yahya Elnawasany: 15,842, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Adam Agan: 7,980, level confidence: 63%.