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Mostafa Asal v Petr Nohel (Tue 30 Jul 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-3,11-2,11-2.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 42,664, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Petr Nohel: 8,385, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 409% better than Petr Nohel.

Mostafa Asal won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 371% better than Petr Nohel in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mostafa Asal was taking it easy by anything up to 43%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 13,975 and 42,664 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mostafa Asal played at level 39,529 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Petr Nohel is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 76%, Petr Nohel: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 74%, Petr Nohel: 90%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 42,771, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Petr Nohel: 8,406, level confidence: 90%.