Andrew Douglas v Alfredo Avila (Thu 25 Jul 2019)
Match won by Andrew Douglas. Result: 7-11,11-7,8-11,11-4,11-4.
Starting level for
Andrew Douglas:
23,964, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Alfredo Avila:
32,767, level confidence: 51%.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing
37% better than Andrew Douglas.
Andrew Douglas won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Douglas played
15% better than Alfredo Avila in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Douglas actually played at a level of
30,041 and Alfredo Avila at a level of
26,138. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Douglas changes to +13% and Alfredo Avila changes to -21%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Douglas becomes +3.2% and for Alfredo Avila becomes -4.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Douglas: 92%, Alfredo Avila: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Douglas: 73%, Alfredo Avila: 57%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Andrew Douglas:
24,707, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Alfredo Avila:
31,385, level confidence: 57%.