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Todd Harrity v Cesar Salazar (Thu 25 Jul 2019)

Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 8-11,8-11,7-11.

Starting level for Todd Harrity: 36,321, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 42,187, level confidence: 70%.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Todd Harrity.

Cesar Salazar won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played 47% better than Todd Harrity in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cesar Salazar actually played at a level of 47,505 and Todd Harrity at a level of 32,255. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to +12% and Todd Harrity changes to -9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes +2.7% and for Todd Harrity becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 84%, Todd Harrity: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 74%, Todd Harrity: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Todd Harrity: 35,605, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Cesar Salazar: 43,115, level confidence: 74%.