Chris Hanson v Pedro de Aguiar Mometto (Wed 24 Jul 2019)
Match won by Chris Hanson. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-6.
Starting level for
Chris Hanson:
30,071, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for
Pedro de Aguiar Mometto:
14,861, level confidence: 64%.
Chris Hanson to win as he is currently playing
102% better than Pedro de Aguiar Mometto.
Chris Hanson won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hanson played
83% better than Pedro de Aguiar Mometto in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Hanson was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 22,916 and 30,071 without affecting his level.
In this case, Chris Hanson played at level 27,245 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Pedro de Aguiar Mometto is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hanson: 76%, Pedro de Aguiar Mometto: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hanson: 73%, Pedro de Aguiar Mometto: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Chris Hanson:
30,026, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Pedro de Aguiar Mometto:
14,839, level confidence: 76%.