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Cesar Salazar v Diego Elias (Mon 22 Jul 2019)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 8-11,4-11,5-11.

Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 39,616, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Diego Elias: 54,529, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Cesar Salazar.

Diego Elias won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 94% better than Cesar Salazar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Elias actually played at a level of 64,756 and Cesar Salazar at a level of 33,359. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to +13% and Cesar Salazar changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes +2.8% and for Cesar Salazar becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 89%, Cesar Salazar: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 75%, Cesar Salazar: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cesar Salazar: 38,605, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Diego Elias: 55,790, level confidence: 75%.