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Miguel Rodriguez v Robertino Pezzota (Fri 26 Jul 2019)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 9-11,16-14,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 45,316, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Robertino Pezzota: 28,527, level confidence: 70%.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Robertino Pezzota.

Miguel Rodriguez won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 25% better than Robertino Pezzota in this match.

As Miguel Rodriguez has played below his allowed range at 37,702, his level reduction is 6.1% before damping. On the assumption that Miguel Rodriguez would normally have been playing at level 42,576 (based on typical behaviour), Robertino Pezzota played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 7.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to -4.8% and Robertino Pezzota changes to +6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -1.5% and for Robertino Pezzota becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 80%, Robertino Pezzota: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 70%, Robertino Pezzota: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 44,610, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Robertino Pezzota: 29,175, level confidence: 74%.