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Leo Au v Abdulla Al-Tamimi (Wed 24 Jul 2019)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 11-5,11-7,13-11.

Starting level for Leo Au: 43,283, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 31,536, level confidence: 69%.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi.

Leo Au won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 53% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leo Au actually played at a level of 45,715 and Abdulla Al-Tamimi at a level of 29,858. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 4.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to +4.7% and Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to -4.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes +1.4% and for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qsf Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 84%, Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 80%, Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leo Au: 43,657, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 31,250, level confidence: 79%.