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Chris Hanson v Alejandro Enriquez (Wed 24 Jul 2019)

Match won by Chris Hanson. Result: 11-4,11-2,11-2.

Starting level for Chris Hanson: 28,920, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Alejandro Enriquez: 13,697, level confidence: 40%.
Chris Hanson to win as he is currently playing 111% better than Alejandro Enriquez.

Chris Hanson won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hanson played 313% better than Alejandro Enriquez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Hanson actually played at a level of 40,423 and Alejandro Enriquez at a level of 9,799. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 40% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hanson changes to +15% and Alejandro Enriquez changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hanson becomes +3.6% and for Alejandro Enriquez becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alejandro Enriquez is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hanson: 82%, Alejandro Enriquez: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hanson: 59%, Alejandro Enriquez: 45%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Hanson: 29,909, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Alejandro Enriquez: 13,025, level confidence: 45%.