Cesar Salazar v Shawn Delierre (Wed 24 Jul 2019)
Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 11-1,11-2,11-4.
Starting level for
Cesar Salazar:
39,311, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Shawn Delierre:
24,952, level confidence: 57%.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing
58% better than Shawn Delierre.
Cesar Salazar won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played
371% better than Shawn Delierre in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cesar Salazar actually played at a level of
68,001 and Shawn Delierre at a level of
14,425. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 73% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 55% and 55% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to +40% and Shawn Delierre changes to -55%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes +7.3% and for Shawn Delierre becomes -10.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Cesar Salazar is limited to +5.3% and Shawn Delierre is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 88%, Shawn Delierre: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 51%, Shawn Delierre: 44%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Cesar Salazar:
41,415, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Shawn Delierre:
23,776, level confidence: 44%.