Todd Harrity v Leandro Romiglio (Wed 24 Jul 2019)
Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-4,11-7,11-3.
Starting level for
Todd Harrity:
35,661, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Leandro Romiglio:
19,589, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing
82% better than Leandro Romiglio.
Todd Harrity won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played
136% better than Leandro Romiglio in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of
40,578 and Leandro Romiglio at a level of
17,215. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10% and 10% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +10% and Leandro Romiglio changes to -9.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +2.5% and for Leandro Romiglio becomes -2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 83%, Leandro Romiglio: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 73%, Leandro Romiglio: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Todd Harrity:
36,493, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Leandro Romiglio:
19,064, level confidence: 76%.