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Abdulla Al-Tamimi v Muhammad Asim Khan (Mon 22 Jul 2019)

Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 7-11,11-6,11-5,8-11,14-12.

Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 30,737, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Muhammad Asim Khan: 21,011, level confidence: 64%.
Abdulla Al-Tamimi to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Muhammad Asim Khan.

Abdulla Al-Tamimi won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played 11% better than Muhammad Asim Khan in this match.

As Abdulla Al-Tamimi has played below his allowed range at 25,596, his level reduction is 9.9% before damping. On the assumption that Abdulla Al-Tamimi would normally have been playing at level 29,407 (based on typical behaviour), Muhammad Asim Khan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.1% and 10.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to -8.1% and Muhammad Asim Khan changes to +9.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes -2.2% and for Muhammad Asim Khan becomes +2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qsf Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 79%, Muhammad Asim Khan: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 69%, Muhammad Asim Khan: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 30,087, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Muhammad Asim Khan: 21,640, level confidence: 70%.