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Leo Au v Victor Crouin (Mon 22 Jul 2019)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 11-8,8-11,12-10,12-10.

Starting level for Leo Au: 41,157, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Victor Crouin: 37,446, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Victor Crouin.

Leo Au won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 20% better than Victor Crouin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leo Au actually played at a level of 43,029 and Victor Crouin at a level of 35,817. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to +4.3% and Victor Crouin changes to -4.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes +1.4% and for Victor Crouin becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qsf Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 83%, Victor Crouin: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 79%, Victor Crouin: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leo Au: 41,694, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Victor Crouin: 37,073, level confidence: 81%.