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Eain Yow Ng v Muhammad Aqif (Thu 18 Jul 2019)

Match won by Eain Yow Ng. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 34,882, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Muhammad Aqif: 8,287, level confidence: 27%.
Eain Yow Ng to win as he is currently playing 321% better than Muhammad Aqif.

Eain Yow Ng won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eain Yow Ng played 136% better than Muhammad Aqif in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Eain Yow Ng was taking it easy by anything up to 36%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,202 and 34,882 without affecting his level.

In this case, Eain Yow Ng played at level 20,851 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Eain Yow Ng would normally have been playing at level 22,257 (based on typical behaviour), Muhammad Aqif played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng changes to 0% and Muhammad Aqif changes to +3.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng becomes 0% and for Muhammad Aqif becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Malaysian Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eain Yow Ng: 66%, Muhammad Aqif: 52%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eain Yow Ng: 49%, Muhammad Aqif: 39%.

Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 34,882, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Muhammad Aqif: 8,421, level confidence: 39%.