Victor Crouin v Alex Eustace (Thu 11 Jul 2019)
Match won by Victor Crouin. Result: 11-2,11-2,11-1.
Starting level for
Victor Crouin:
34,212, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Alex Eustace:
12,365, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing
177% better than Alex Eustace.
Victor Crouin won all of the games and 87% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Victor Crouin played
560% better than Alex Eustace in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Victor Crouin actually played at a level of
52,839 and Alex Eustace at a level of
8,006. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 54% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 30% and 30% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Victor Crouin changes to +30% and Alex Eustace changes to -27%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Victor Crouin becomes +5.9% and for Alex Eustace becomes -6.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tasmanian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alex Eustace is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Victor Crouin: 85%, Alex Eustace: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Victor Crouin: 55%, Alex Eustace: 57%.
Final level for Victor Crouin:
36,102, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Alex Eustace:
11,776, level confidence: 57%.