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Addeen Idrakie v Victor Crouin (Sat 06 Jul 2019)

Match won by Victor Crouin. Result: 4-11,6-11,11-6,7-11.

Starting level for Addeen Idrakie: 21,042, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Victor Crouin: 34,367, level confidence: 63%.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Addeen Idrakie.

Victor Crouin won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Victor Crouin played 30% better than Addeen Idrakie in this match.

As Victor Crouin has played below his allowed range at 28,581, his level reduction is 4.7% before damping. On the assumption that Victor Crouin would normally have been playing at level 32,071 (based on typical behaviour), Addeen Idrakie played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 6.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Victor Crouin changes to -3.7% and Addeen Idrakie changes to +4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Victor Crouin becomes -1.3% and for Addeen Idrakie becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Australian Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Victor Crouin: 79%, Addeen Idrakie: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Victor Crouin: 70%, Addeen Idrakie: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Addeen Idrakie: 21,482, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Victor Crouin: 33,911, level confidence: 70%.