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Roshan Bharos v Victor Crouin (Fri 05 Jul 2019)

Match won by Victor Crouin. Result: 11-7,6-11,4-11,8-11.

Starting level for Roshan Bharos: 17,227, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Victor Crouin: 34,613, level confidence: 61%.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing 101% better than Roshan Bharos.

Victor Crouin won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Victor Crouin played 29% better than Roshan Bharos in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Victor Crouin was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 26,489 and 34,613 without affecting his level.

As Victor Crouin has played below his allowed range at 24,287, his level reduction is 9.1% before damping. On the assumption that Victor Crouin would normally have been playing at level 30,279 (based on typical behaviour), Roshan Bharos played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.3% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Victor Crouin changes to -6.3% and Roshan Bharos changes to +9.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Victor Crouin becomes -1.8% and for Roshan Bharos becomes +2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Australian Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Victor Crouin: 78%, Roshan Bharos: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Victor Crouin: 63%, Roshan Bharos: 70%.

Final level for Roshan Bharos: 17,689, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Victor Crouin: 33,994, level confidence: 63%.