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Daryl Selby v Angus Gillams (Sun 07 Jul 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-8,11-7,5-11,11-3.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 37,205, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Angus Gillams: 24,335, level confidence: 56%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Angus Gillams.

Daryl Selby won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 27% better than Angus Gillams in this match.

As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 32,139, his level reduction is 4% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 35,264 (based on typical behaviour), Angus Gillams played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 5.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -3.2% and Angus Gillams changes to +4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -1.2% and for Angus Gillams becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Brewin Dolphin Excalibur Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 66%, Angus Gillams: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 60%, Angus Gillams: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 36,747, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Angus Gillams: 24,809, level confidence: 68%.