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Marco Staller v Oliver Janssen (Sat 29 Jun 2019)

Match won by Marco Staller. Result: 11-9,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Marco Staller: 4,627, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Oliver Janssen: 3,437, level confidence: 64%.
Marco Staller to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Oliver Janssen.

Marco Staller won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marco Staller played 36% better than Oliver Janssen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marco Staller actually played at a level of 4,654 and Oliver Janssen at a level of 3,417. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 0.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marco Staller changes to +0.4% and Oliver Janssen changes to -0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marco Staller becomes +0.3% and for Oliver Janssen becomes -0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Swiss GP Masters 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marco Staller: 84%, Oliver Janssen: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marco Staller: 84%, Oliver Janssen: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marco Staller: 4,632, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Oliver Janssen: 3,421, level confidence: 79%.