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Oliver Janssen v Robert Alexa (Fri 28 Jun 2019)

Match won by Oliver Janssen. Result: 11-13,4-11,11-9,13-11,11-4.

Starting level for Oliver Janssen: 3,369, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Robert Alexa: 3,338, level confidence: 49%.
Oliver Janssen to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Robert Alexa.

Oliver Janssen won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Janssen played 9% better than Robert Alexa in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oliver Janssen actually played at a level of 3,494 and Robert Alexa at a level of 3,219. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Janssen changes to +3.7% and Robert Alexa changes to -3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Janssen becomes +2.2% and for Robert Alexa becomes -2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Swiss GP Masters 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Janssen: 66%, Robert Alexa: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Janssen: 64%, Robert Alexa: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Janssen: 3,437, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Robert Alexa: 3,265, level confidence: 68%.