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Rex Hedrick v Victor Crouin (Sun 30 Jun 2019)

Match won by Victor Crouin. Result: 2-11,4-11,2-11.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 34,621, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Victor Crouin: 32,536, level confidence: 68%.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Victor Crouin.

Victor Crouin won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Victor Crouin played 313% better than Rex Hedrick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Victor Crouin actually played at a level of 68,165 and Rex Hedrick at a level of 16,525. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 110% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Victor Crouin changes to +105% and Rex Hedrick changes to -86%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Victor Crouin becomes +16% and for Rex Hedrick becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Victorian Open Championships' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Victor Crouin is limited to +5.6% and Rex Hedrick is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Victor Crouin: 82%, Rex Hedrick: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Victor Crouin: 39%, Rex Hedrick: 41%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 33,011, level confidence: 41%.
Final level for Victor Crouin: 34,401, level confidence: 39%.