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Faisal Riaz v Victor Crouin (Thu 27 Jun 2019)

Match won by Victor Crouin. Result: 1-11,0-11,1-11.

Starting level for Faisal Riaz: 2,415, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Victor Crouin: 31,110, level confidence: 67%.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing 1188% better than Faisal Riaz.

Victor Crouin won all of the games and 94% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 1000% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Victor Crouin played 1000% better than Faisal Riaz in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Victor Crouin was taking it easy by anything up to 64%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,025 and 31,110 without affecting his level.

In this case, Victor Crouin played at level 26,565 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Faisal Riaz is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Victor Crouin: 82%, Faisal Riaz: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Victor Crouin: 76%, Faisal Riaz: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Faisal Riaz: 2,417, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Victor Crouin: 31,135, level confidence: 76%.