Campbell Grayson v Temwa Chileshe (Thu 27 Jun 2019)
Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-7.
Starting level for
Campbell Grayson:
37,358, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Temwa Chileshe:
10,150, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Campbell Grayson to win as he is currently playing
268% better than Temwa Chileshe.
Campbell Grayson won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played
106% better than Temwa Chileshe in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Campbell Grayson was taking it easy by anything up to 31%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 17,570 and 37,358 without affecting his level.
In this case, Campbell Grayson played at level 23,159 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Campbell Grayson would normally have been playing at level 25,620 (based on typical behaviour), Temwa Chileshe played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.6%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to 0% and Temwa Chileshe changes to +5.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes 0% and for Temwa Chileshe becomes +2.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior New Zealand Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 88%, Temwa Chileshe: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 66%, Temwa Chileshe: 65%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Campbell Grayson:
37,302, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Temwa Chileshe:
10,345, level confidence: 65%.