Wong Chi Him v Tang Ming Hong (Fri 21 Jun 2019)
Match won by Wong Chi Him. Result: 11-4,11-2,11-4.
Starting level for
Wong Chi Him:
23,173, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Tang Ming Hong:
18,450, level confidence: 61%.
Wong Chi Him to win as he is currently playing
26% better than Tang Ming Hong.
Wong Chi Him won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Wong Chi Him played
230% better than Tang Ming Hong in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Wong Chi Him actually played at a level of
37,562 and Tang Ming Hong at a level of
11,382. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 62% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 54% and 54% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him changes to +53% and Tang Ming Hong changes to -54%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him becomes +10% and for Tang Ming Hong becomes -10.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Nz Southern Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Wong Chi Him is limited to +6.2% and Tang Ming Hong is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Wong Chi Him: 79%, Tang Ming Hong: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Wong Chi Him: 49%, Tang Ming Hong: 48%.
Final level for Wong Chi Him:
24,612, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Tang Ming Hong:
17,571, level confidence: 48%.