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Mohamed Nabil v Connor Turk (Thu 20 Jun 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Nabil. Result: 11-9,12-10,6-11,4-11,11-5.

Starting level for Mohamed Nabil: 14,687, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Connor Turk: 6,748, level confidence: 39%.
Mohamed Nabil to win as he is currently playing 118% better than Connor Turk.

Mohamed Nabil won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Nabil played 6% better than Connor Turk in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mohamed Nabil was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,697 and 14,687 without affecting his level.

As Mohamed Nabil has played below his allowed range at 8,764, his level reduction is 22% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Nabil would normally have been playing at level 12,534 (based on typical behaviour), Connor Turk played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 32%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Nabil changes to -9.2% and Connor Turk changes to +21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Nabil becomes -2.8% and for Connor Turk becomes +6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Mississauga Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Nabil: 77%, Connor Turk: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Nabil: 54%, Connor Turk: 44%.

Final level for Mohamed Nabil: 14,290, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Connor Turk: 7,163, level confidence: 44%.