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Tom Richards v Chris Simpson (Tue 07 May 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-7,6-11,14-16.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 40,773, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 37,206, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Chris Simpson.

Chris Simpson won 67% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 15% better than Tom Richards in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Simpson actually played at a level of 41,739 and Tom Richards at a level of 36,345. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 8.6% and 8.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to +8.6% and Tom Richards changes to -7.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes +2.2% and for Tom Richards becomes -2.1%.

Given Tom Richards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Chris Simpson is +1.9% and for Tom Richards is -1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 91%, Tom Richards: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 81%, Tom Richards: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 40,050, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 37,873, level confidence: 81%.