Joel Makin v Farkas Balázs (Mon 29 Apr 2019)
Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-1.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
55,635, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Farkas Balázs:
28,088, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing
98% better than Farkas Balázs.
Joel Makin won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played
230% better than Farkas Balázs in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of
71,811 and Farkas Balázs at a level of
21,761. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +18% and Farkas Balázs changes to -20%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +3.6% and for Farkas Balázs becomes -4.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 92%, Farkas Balázs: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 71%, Farkas Balázs: 67%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joel Makin:
57,130, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Farkas Balázs:
27,221, level confidence: 67%.