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Patrick Rooney v Farkas Balázs (Thu 04 Apr 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-6,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 26,580, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Farkas Balázs: 28,630, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Farkas Balázs to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Patrick Rooney.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 106% better than Farkas Balázs in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of 39,617 and Farkas Balázs at a level of 19,208. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 49% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +47% and Farkas Balázs changes to -44%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +8.9% and for Farkas Balázs becomes -8.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Scottish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Patrick Rooney is limited to +6% and Farkas Balázs is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 82%, Farkas Balázs: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 55%, Farkas Balázs: 57%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 28,222, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Farkas Balázs: 27,680, level confidence: 57%.